Index trading

Friday report - VISION FINANCIAL MARKETS

2010-01-22T05:39:00.000-08:00

From Nov 2nd to present there have been no 3 day sell off in the S&P.
One of the big things that changed over the last few days is VOLUME.
The down side tends see more and the higher the markets go the less volume there is. Eventually that will catch up with the stock market. Several well know market letters are questioning if the sell off is actually the markets rolling over or just another sell off that reverses into new highs?
We don’t know but what we do know is the SPH fell right into every level of sell stops we put out yesterday, the only ones they didn’t get were the sell stops under 1103 down to 1098.
GE just reported and the SPH that was up .50 handles is now down 6 handles. We have no economic release today.
In Asia 11 out of 11 markets closed lower. In Europe 10 out of 10 markets are trading lower. Our call? Currently the markets do not have a good feel to them.
But it’s a Friday and we have a term we call counter trend Friday.
If we see oversized GLOBEX volume 350-450k we would lean to buying weakness with tight stops. If that fails it could be another big day of sell program.
Ideally we would like to get a look at how the premium between the cash and the futures look before jumping in. You take it from there...

Thursday report - VISION FINANCIAL MARKETS

2010-01-21T04:53:00.000-08:00

The earnings season is heating up and it feels like the smart money maybe doing some selling. You could see it in the cash market all day.

Today Fifth Third (FITB), Goldman Sachs (GS), Keycorp (KEY), PNC Financial (PNC) pre-market while Capital One (COF), American Express (AXP) and Bancorp South (BXS) report after the close. Friday brings pre-market numbers from BB&T (BBT), General Electric (GE), McDonalds (MCD) and SunTrust Bank (STI). So we have all sorts of big names reporting.
In Asia 7 out of 10 markets closed lower as China continues to clamp down on bank lending. In Europe, out of the 10 markets being quoted 6 are trading higher, 1 is unchanged and 2 are trading lower.

We have a simple rule on trying to get back on track and it’s listening more and trading less.
We are going to take a step back. What we will do is remind everyone that out of the 12 trading days in the New Year 12 have been up and 4 have been down. That last Friday the SPH closed at 1132.30 and yesterday it closed at 1133.00.

And lastly, if the markets are rolling over we are only 15 handles off the contract high and nearly 490 handles off the low. Look down the red boxes. If you look down to DEC 15th the SPH was down then up on the 16th, down on the 17th and then had 5 up days in a row. We do not know if these patterns will hold but we think its well worth looking at. Goldman on tap…

Thursday report - VISION FINANCIAL MARKETS

2010-01-14T05:42:00.000-08:00

A friend sent us something last night that said to watch the 1150 strike price in the SPX.
That the open interest is around 65k (7.5bln in notional exposure) and that most of it was bought at the end of the year and the beginning on 2010. He said if the street is short (which it sounds like they are) that it translates in to roughly 200mil in index futures to buy for every $1 move in the futures.
That is could act like a magnet the closer we get to 1150. Its 6:30 AM Thursday morning, crude is up .21 cents and the SPH is UNCHED.

In Asia 10 out if 11 markets close higher with the one market that did close lower (Hang Seng) only off 0.15%.
In Europe 7 out of 10 market are trading higher. Our call? The S&P cash stats for the Tuesday before the JAN expiration has been up 15 / down 11 of the last 26 occasion.
Despite saying we wanted to sell rallies yesterday we lean to higher prices today and tomorrow. Buy weakness. If they don’t go up today they will tomorrow. We still have 1150-1153 and the 1180-1185 level as out next upside objectives.

Tuesday report - VISION FINANCIAL MARKETS

2009-12-29T09:38:00.000-08:00

You can put it in the books. Another gap higher open started the last week of the year in the green. That makes five days in a row opening with a gap.
This is viewed as expected by some, but at the same time these gains are creating some pause in even the most bullish of traders.
Without a retracement to speak of on this run, the equities are making it difficult to just jump on board.
So as we start this week of the traditional Santa Claus Rally it is sink or swim time in very quiet holiday markets.

In the end the SPH got exactly up to the 50% mark at 1126.00, sold off a little, recovered a little and closed up on the day “a little”. The imbalance showed sell $241mil vs. buy $179mil, traded 1123.50 on the 3:00 cash close and settled at 1123.10 on the futures close. What can we say? The SPH has closed higher 7 days in a row and equity flows are the highest levels in 79 weeks. Do you really want to fight that?

We now have 2 ½ days left in 2009. We see no reason to add to this. For the most part the year is done, cooked. We got our 1130 and “maybe” over the next few days it will exceed 1130. By how much? We don’t know and don’t care. Our call? Remains the same, 1130 and then 1150. The problem with 1150 is it may not happen until next year.

Wednesday Report - VISION FINANCIAL MARKETS

2009-12-23T05:54:00.000-08:00

In the end chalk another one up for the BULLs.
With all the buy stops above and the lack of overall trade it seems the path of least resistance is still up.

Wednesday? Have you ever heard the saying “Id rather fight than switch?” Well don’t believe it.
The theme remains the same… the slower it gets the more it will favor the upside. As of today we have 2 trading days left until Christmas, 6 trading days left in the month and 9 days left in the year.

Can you believe it? We can’t speak for you but 2009 goes grown to be one of the longest years we can remember and Dec feels like the longest month of the year.
Looking back it if there is one lesion learned it’s that the markets went up despite many a smart man saying they should go down.
In Asia 11 out of 11 markets closed higher. In Europe 9 of 10 markets are trading higher.
Our call? We have 4 economic release, the EIA numbers and 3 auctions to get past but we still think we are going up

Tuesday report - VISION FINANCIAL MARKETS

2009-12-15T05:26:00.000-08:00

In the end the roll over will account for at least part of the current slow down but only a small portion. For get the option expiration its year end. Everyone is “shutting down” for the year.

One thing that we will get out of the roll will be a look at how open interest went out in the S&P. During the last several rolls the open interest dropped from a high of 650k big contracts down to 350k. At the start of this roll open interest was right around 400k. As far as the days overall trade went it was “all spreads” As for the over all tone it seems the slower it gets the higher they go.

Last Monday the SPH closed down 4.40 handles, on Tuesday the SPH closed down 13.70 handles at 1090.00.
But after that Wednesday was up 5.60 handles, Thursday was up 6.40 handle, Friday was up 6 handles and yesterday was up 5.50 handles? The SPH has been crawling its way back over the last 4 trading days and is only a few handles off it contract highs for the year.
Like the market, don’t like the market, it really doesn’t matter at this point.
We have only 11 day until Christmas, 4 trading days until DEC goes off the board and only 12 trading days left on 2009.
That in it should be something to cheer about. Here is where we stand on the markets right now. The slower it gets and the later into the month we go the higher we think the S&Ps will end up.
Do we like that? Not really but in all honesty this should be the time of the year that smart traders cut back.
It doesn’t matter if they are up or down no one wants to see losses at year end.

The way it looks is the SPH is going back up but the narrow rally over the last few days is anything but inspiring. In Europe today the banks led the sell off with concerns about Greece's debts and worries over the financial health of Austria's banks. We could be in for a down day but we don’t think they will stay down for long.

Thursday report - VISION FINANCIAL MARKETS

2009-12-10T04:54:00.000-08:00

We have 12 days to Christmas and 15 trading days left in the year.
A local in the S&P pit told me yesterday that he has lost most of the money he was up this year in the last few weeks. All we have to say is CUT BACK.

If you’re down don’t loose any more and if you’re up (like many of the hedge funds) cut back or don’t trade. Another trader asked us if we still thought we could see 1130-1150 by years end.
With 15 trading days left was still think it’s possible but like anything in life there are no guarantees. Shit the SPZ could be up 20-30 handles in one day but who knows. In Asia 6 of 11 markets closed higher.

In Europe 8 out of 10 markets being quoted are trading higher.
We think crude is over sold and that yesterday low near $70.00s could hold for a few days. If this is the case it will only help the S&P move higher. For now the circle jerk continues, the SPZ sells off, finds a spot and holds (we said in Monday 1185 would be critical) and then starts going up again fueled by all the buy stops above. Buy weakness we are looking for the Thursday / Friday low the week before expiration.

THE INDEX REPORT

2009-12-09T05:34:00.000-08:00

In the end all we have to say is things didn’t act all that well.
The $100.00 sell off in gold over the last few days and the big drop in the EURO currency and crude are gigantic moves. Many times in the past when you see move like that it’s usually associate with people being caught..
The retail trader sits there and says “well I’m out 20k, gold has to bounce” the unprotected position then turns into an even larger loss. It’s was all fun and games when the GOLD was going up everyday then in come the margin calls and all the people getting forced out. That type of stuff never ends well.

Wednesday? Thursday is roll day, MCH becomes front month.
Most traders do not like the roll because they say it only makes trading the S&P harder. Then next week we have the DEC expiration, none of this will be easy.
In Asia over night 9 out of 10 markets closed lower. In Europe 7 out of 10 markets are trading lower.
This morning we have Wholesale Trade at 9:00 and the API out at 9:30 and the 10yr note auction out at noon.
Our call? Its 6:30 am and the SPZ is up 4.50 handles. We lean to buying weakness, especially if we get down neat yesterdays lows. On the upside we have buy stops above 1098 up to 1103.00. We are still looking for the Thursday / Friday low this week before next week’s expiration.

So what Pit bull says ?

2009-12-07T05:00:00.000-08:00

VISION FINANCIAL MARKETS

Out of the last 12 Mondays; 1 was closed, 2 were down and 9 have been up. One of the down days was only off .60 and the other down 10.50.

Total loosing handles over the 10 weeks adds up to -11.1 handles; the 9 winning Mondays account for 97.90 winning handles. We have been asking how long this can go on and even we don’t really understand it.

The Pit Bull says all you got to do is just “buyem on Friday and holdem into Monday”, if only it was that easy.

Its 5:30 am and the SPZ that was up 2 handles is now down 5 handles. The dollar jumped to a five-week high this morning against the euro, crude is down .85 cents and is down $27.00 this morning. We worked in the old GOLD pit and like we said GOLD goes down a lot quicker than it goes up, that’s the history of the commodity. In Asia 6 out of 11 markets closed lower.

In Europe 6 out of 10 markets are trading lower. Our call? The markets are looking at the same stuff they were Friday. We think it’s possible we remain weak for the first part of the day then rally. There is a feeling out there we could dip one more time before going back up later in the week.

Friday report - Bottom line

2009-12-04T09:37:00.000-08:00

We have to wait to get a look at the jobs numbers and see if we have “over sized” GLOBEX volumes.

Overall we don’t have a good feeling about the markets right now. They are LONG over due for a pull back which would fit right in to a sell off before going back up during the DEC expiration and month / year end.

VISION FINANCIAL MARKETS

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. VFM Trading its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

New !!! Pit tradres are talking from the floor

2009-12-03T05:50:00.000-08:00

I am happy to announce of new section in the blog. Traders from the CME floor are going to share there thoughts and beyond that their great massive experience about the stock market.

The floor is the center of information crossroad of the market. Many institutions and hedge funds are placing their orders via the floor and it's well known that the best traders trade from the pit and own seat in the exchange.

VISION FINANCIAL MARKETS - 12.03.2009

The back and fill price action and the slower the markets get all seem to favor the upside.
With a mixed batch of jobs numbers and economic release the SPZ forged into new highs. We said we thought we would see some side ways to down type price action and with the exception of the early spurt up that’s pretty much what we got.

Oil got hit by low demand and the bond market was down, then up, then back down again. We had a lot of people asking about the bond move and all we heard was they trapped a lot of people long into the rally.

Look, we don’t want to see people get chopped up going into the end of the year. The way we see it is if you’re up, stay up. c If your down, don’t use the last 3-4 weeks of the year to get even. Take some common sense advice and cut back. We are now into the DEC roll and in a few weeks it we will be looking at the DEC expiration, a time many traders say makes it even harder to trade.

The less is better. The small ranges and the lack of volume have made it too hard to trade. We still think we will see higher prices but we also think the risk is going up the higher we go. Below is a snap shot of all the economic releases and scheduled speeches for today and tomorrow. After you read that you may agree that cutting back is the way to go. 1120.00-1123.00, 1130.00then 1150.00 are still our upside targets.

Disclaimer :
The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. VFM Trading its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

So are we due to correction?

2009-11-29T05:54:00.000-08:00

Thanksgiving has been a very positive for the markets , especially on Fridays. The fact the last Friday ended red has been a poor suprise for seasonality traders and bulls as well.

I consider Friday action as a try to minor the damage for the bulls as relatively they did pretty well.

The overall picture remains positive. Take a look at the new 52 NYSE lows which is running on 10 for several months and this pattern is very typical when bottoming.

Good trading

Houston, Do we have a problem?

2009-11-21T10:01:00.000-08:00

The market grinding up as only the expiry week had the ability to temporary halt.

The image below shows the market resistance with the downtrend line stretched from 1550 area.

So what can we do now? The market can start a correction but the uptrend is Not yet violated.

Good trading

Market review

2009-11-14T08:51:00.000-08:00

The bears once again have felt the dominance of the uptrend as market recovered from 1035 area to a new year high 1102 area.

While this rally don't have the strong momentum of the last one , it appears that uptrend is still intact.

In the image below, S&P500 weekly cash index. The analysis is very simple. The price should not be below the 65 EMA which represent our benchmark. As long as the price above the 65 EMA , the trend is up.
As you can see over the last years , the outstanding efficacy of this simple indicator.

Updaed performance plus market review

2009-11-06T08:18:00.000-08:00

I haven't updated the site for a while and the reason was very poor market conditions.
The risk reward wasn't at our favorable ratio.

Many analysts , especially Elliot wave ones ,expect a down wave C to new lows , below 660.
We encountered a V structure bottom pattern which is very rare. My analysis shows that a new uptrend has begun since 980 area.
As long as 980 is not broken , The uptrend is still intact.

Please take a look at the updated performance page.

Market update

2009-08-21T09:12:00.000-07:00

It's been a whiile since the last post and the trend has changed as suggested . So what's now?

Entering a long position here , can cause major loss since conditions are pointing
for a correction.
XLE look weak as well as September is the worst month of the year.

Nevertheless I prefer to short the safe way, where market confirm the down move and then corrects up to lower move.

Position closed

2009-07-27T00:35:00.000-07:00

While market was looking as it in a reversal mode ,we shorted 944 area .

A huge rally came to stop us out at 974. 30 points loss. 30-40 points is the maximum loss the Swingit suffers since a change in risk mangament occured a couple of months ago.

As for now,Market is very strong as even change in trend can occur.

Good trading

Position closed

2009-07-13T22:52:00.000-07:00

We took a short @ 912 since market conditions suggested a pullback.
Since there is more juice to fall , we let the position ride.

Once there is a profit , we never risk the profit. A profit stop at 898 was placed and today was activated. Position is closed.

Good trading

Market update

2009-06-28T05:02:00.000-07:00

Market seems to be vulnerable in the coming weeks for a sharp move.
Recent breadth and other measurements suggest a reversal is near.

In case this analysis proved to be wrong as S&P500 will move north above 970, then most chances that the down trend is done.

Good trading

Twitter

2009-06-17T22:49:00.000-07:00

Now you can follow us @ http://twitter.com/indexswing

The updates include not only indices but forex and other commodities (i.e. Gold).

Stay tuned...

Closed position

2009-06-05T00:46:00.000-07:00

A short @ 946 was triggered as of 02/06/09 , with a stop at 976.

In order not to let winner into a loser after market was visiting 923 ,the stop was
moved to 944 and today we got stopped out. So trade is +2 points.

Good trading

Market update

2009-06-03T02:58:00.000-07:00

As I suspected the market couldn't breakdown 880 and rose above 940 area.

At the moment , things are very shaky.
We are in extreme situation where usually market reverse and start the down move.
On the other hand , this is a bear rally which can lead to a trend change !

I lean on the downside but the current environment is not suitable for trading the both sides , till we get a real clue of where market is headed. That would be for a start a close below 920.

The USD index is very close to reverse and that may help the market to reverse but you can never rely on correlations like this as they can stop "working" at some time.

Good trading

Closed position

2009-05-21T00:31:00.000-07:00

I decided to close the short position @ 895 since I suspected there will be
another up leg attempt towards 950 area as I didn't want to undergo more than 5% draw down.

At the moment , it looks like the market topped out.

Good trading

Stopped out

2009-03-28T08:35:00.000-07:00

Out stop was activated and we are out. The reason I gave a second chance to this trade was many negative signs that has been collected since 750 area.

While in the first the trade was not going our direction , Thursday and Friday led me think that we are in the right way. The new rescue plan which was published on Monday caused to 7% huge rally and it hasn’t helped the trade.

While I am sure the pullback is very close, there is a chance that market will continue up.
The purpose of stop loss is risk mangment. Swingit has stricted risk managemnt to not risk more than 5% a trade no matter what.

Althogh you think you are right , you can’t win them all.
Not having stop can blow out accounts.

I am confident to have Swingit in new highs over the coming months.

New subscribers site

2009-02-28T01:19:00.000-08:00

A new subscribers site has been launched. The new site address -
http://www.index-trade.com/

The main purpose is to have the current status of Swingit clear and shown to all.

I may share there my ideas concerning market conditions that not necessarily linked to Swingit signals.

Good trading

Short closed

2009-02-15T04:21:00.000-08:00

We entered a short trade on Monday , at 869.50 E-mini March S&P500 contract.
Right after the fill , the market began all his way down to a low at 806 area within days but then retraced sharply to 831 area on close.

I think this kind of behavior is NOT healthy for markets , to retrace from -2% to light positive area. It reflects that the buyers has no real power to move the index but to only 0.3% advance.

I waited for Friday to be a down day but that wasn't happened(Actually it did after market was closed , the future emini was about 8 points lower).

We closed the position with 39.75 points profit.

Good trading

Another profitable closed trade

2009-01-10T05:40:00.000-08:00

Tuseday , we went short at 930 E-mini S&P500 march future ( ESH9).

Since then the market began to undergo a correction. We closed the trade at 897.75 on Friday , leaving us 32.25 points profit to another high record of swingit.

The reason for exiting the position was identifying volatility couldn't handle to rise. Means something is fishy here and we don't want to leave money on the table.

Performance page is now updated.

Good trading

Closed short

2008-12-14T00:04:00.000-08:00

The short from 893.50 closed with stop buy at 881.75 on Friday.

The futures Friday morning plunged to 830 but from opening recovred and closed 885 area.
The reason for closing the trade was once you have a winning trade , don't let it turn to a losser.

Swingit is once again at new record high.

Good trading

Important message

2008-12-12T00:44:00.000-08:00

A short at 893.50 was called on wednesday at 893.50 E-mini December future.

As I am willing to post my trades on-line and real-time , many subscribers have asked why should them pay (even if it's only 50$ a month) while they can have it on the blog for free.

Well , I think there is some point in their compliant , specially after 1.5 year , posting the trades in the site for free.
Therfore, I may post the trades with some delay , so you the readers could evaluate the trade and subscribers would benfit the paid service.

If you would like to subscribe to swing it service , please press the upper right paypal button.
If you don't have the time to trade , I have a cooperation with a big US certified broker to excute the trades for you.

For questions , feel free to e-mail me - indexswing@yahoo.com

Closed short

2008-12-06T02:04:00.001-08:00

On Friday ,the S&P500 was ready to break down the 820 levels. Especially after bad economics data.

Suprise , It hasn't.
Instead , we got a huge rally. I placed a buy stop order at 857.75 and it was filled to a trade with a 12 points profit.

The future continued to rally till 878.50 but closed at 871.75.

The trade was recorded at Swingit and now we are again at new high record.
Please visit performance page.

Good trading

SHORT

2008-12-04T14:49:00.000-08:00

Short signal was triggered when the December e-mini contract was at 870.

Trade is recorded in swingit C2.

Good trading

Closed short

2008-11-06T23:13:00.000-08:00

The market gave us and we never refuse to 100 points prfoit.

You can review our updated performance in the upper right side of the page or here.

Good trading

Short

2008-11-05T17:34:00.000-08:00

Short was called in December e-mini SP500 future contract at 997.
The trade was recorded at C2 platform.

I am sorry for not updating real time the trade but tracking the position
is on my top proiority once triggered.

Good trading

Out

2008-10-07T00:07:00.001-07:00

The long was closed with a loss yesterday since it passed my 5% draw down rule.

The recent volatility has not left any chance for this trade.

While the panic is celebrating , in a month foresee , it will settle down and therefore we will undergo a nice rally.

Good trading

Long

2008-10-03T05:51:00.000-07:00

Swing it has been Long since yesterday.

I am sorry for the late post but I find it
very difficult to update the blog while managing the position in the same time.

Good trading

Closed Trade

2008-10-01T23:40:00.000-07:00

On the 29/09 , I went long at 1167 , S&P e-mini December contract.
The trade was closed on the 30/09 , at 1173.
6 points profit.

I couldn't update the trade real-time in the blog due to extreme market conditions.
The trade was recorded at C2 Swing it platform.

Good trading

Closed short

2008-09-18T00:01:00.000-07:00

The short trade was closed with a profit of 86 points.

It's note worthy to review the performance sheet of the blog which gained 70.37% yield (no leverage) from 15.03.07 till 17.09.08 vs. -16.94% of the S&P 500 cash index.

Good trading

Close - Late update

2008-08-29T07:54:00.000-07:00

A short trade at 1279.00 Sep contract was triggered in my C2 Swingit system on the 27/08/08.

Due to technical difficulties , the message comes out only today.

Good trading

Close Short

2008-08-20T12:09:00.000-07:00

Market looks too stiff to breakdown.

Therefore, the September S&P 500 E-mini short was closed at 1268.00.
That's 40.75 points profit. As usual trades were recorded in my swing it C2 platform.

Good trading

Short

2008-08-11T15:34:00.000-07:00

Going short at 1308.75. S&P September E-mini contract.
Sorry for the late update . The trade was reported on-line at C2 swingit platform
system.

Good trading.

The short is closed

2008-07-28T12:00:00.000-07:00

I closed the short at 1239.50. That's a 18 points profit.

While the market looks vulnerable to further downside move ,
I decided to take profit here.

This trade hasn't started as expected but proved that when there is weakness,
market can't ignore it.

As usual, trade was recorded at C2 swing it.

Good trading
Indexwin

Short

2008-07-22T13:19:00.000-07:00

I took short at 1257.50 in C2 swing it system.

The recent rally has been impressive but sellers are waiting for their turn to act.

Good trading

Close long

2008-07-17T11:18:00.000-07:00

I am closing the long here . Emini September contract at 1256.
That's a 27 points profit.

Trade was recorded in C2 swing it.

Good trading

Indexwin

Long

2008-07-14T09:56:00.000-07:00

We are in panic time.

I went long ESU8 , E-mini s&p 500 September contract at 1229.00
We can have draw down greater than expected but you never know.

Trade is recorded in my Swing it system.

Good trading

Indexwin

Closed short

2008-07-02T09:49:00.000-07:00

I closed short e-mini SP September contract(ESU8) at 1278. Trade is recorded at swing it C2 system. That means 82.5 points profit.

The reason is simple. Breadth suggest correction is near. Nevertheless,I wouldn't be surprised to see the market falls down even today. This is a scenario that may happen during strong sell-offs.
I decided to take the money out of the table.

FYI , over the last weeks my aggressive C2 system Indexwin has reached new record high.

Good trading

Short

2008-06-17T10:27:00.000-07:00

I take short here . September S&P e-mini contract at 1360.50.

Trade is recodred in swing it C2 system

Good trading

Exit Short

2008-06-10T13:12:00.000-07:00

I closed short position e-mini s&p future at 1356.00.

That leave us a 30.5 points profit. I may re-short the market even in the short term but meanwhile I decided to take the money out of the table.
As usual trade was recorded at my collective 2 swing it system.

You may want to visit my other collective 2 trading system index win which has peaked to new high record over the last week.

Good trading

Short

2008-06-02T12:59:00.000-07:00

Well , I usually don't enter a trade where the S&P is dropping 1% but I see further weakness in the index.

Therefore I decided to short at 1386.50 E-mini s&p June contract.

Trade is recorded in my swing it trading system.

Good trading

Exit all short

2008-05-27T10:57:00.000-07:00

I exit all short position at 1378.75. I smell some upside before downtrend to continue. I decided to take profit.

As you remember I Sold 2 S&P e-mini short contracts. First at 1382.5 and the second at 1421.
For the first contract ,the gain was 3.75 points and for the second 42.25 points.

The trades were posted real time in my swing it trading system.

The performance sheet of the blog will be updated as well.

Good trading

Adding one more contract

2008-05-16T10:33:00.000-07:00

I am adding one more short at 1421. This is the first time I am adding contract my current position in the blog.

The reason is that I have swing it collective2 system which can easily track the position.

Good trading

So when we are going from here?

2008-05-10T11:41:00.000-07:00

The market as always doing us a difficult job but it seems to me the recent price action has been very challenging.

Will the SP500 continue move to 1450 ? The down trend is over? Are we going to collapse from here? Are we in the end of recession or maybe it's only the beginning ?

My view for the short term is that the market has a little space for further move down.
The volatility has been very low over the last two weeks. My analysis shows it need to rise significantly over the short-mid term. So that what makes me to be very cautious on the long side for the mid term.

In conclusion, This is a very difficult time. I will examine Monday's market behavior to finally determine what to do.

Good trading

This signal was a false one ?

2008-04-27T00:51:00.000-07:00

The last sell signal was accompanied by both a price weakness and breadth weakness.
While price hasn't broken down and eventually move up , the breadth still suggest weakness.
That's why I stick with my sell signal s&p index.
Trading isn't an easy thing to do. The last event is a good example.

I still see a limited upside potential. When the market isn't "listening" to the breadth over some period of time , the drop can be brutal.

I was asked whether there is a stop loss in the signals. I have a mental stop where I can see I was wrong.

I follow the position constantly in my new collective2 system called swing it which is the trading system that has been generating the signals in the blog over the last year.

Good trading

Short signal

2008-04-22T06:52:00.000-07:00

A short signal has been placed for E mini SP contract at 1382.00.

Good trading

Exit long - 60.5 points profit

2008-04-18T08:02:00.000-07:00

Glad this trade was finally a winner. The market was helding the 1320-1325 level and triggered
a potential upside movement.

We set 60.5 points profit. The market may go higher but I decided to take profit here.

Good trading

Long

2008-04-15T11:24:00.000-07:00

Well , I don't have full confirmation but I take here long 1332.
Because the risk is higher than usual ,the stop here will be placed at 1317.

Good trading

Keeping the risk a way

2008-04-11T07:05:00.000-07:00

Yesterday decision was obviously a mistake (The s&p emini contract is traded at 1344) but I don't regret. I had some indicators suggested to exit short. That doesn't mean going long but rather be careful - there might be a trend change .

Right now , I wouldn't go long here and prefer the down side though short here involves a greater risk than usually and that's why isn't declared.

Good trading

close short

2008-04-10T10:47:00.000-07:00

I am closing short here. 1367. 3 points profit.

Short here

2008-04-04T08:01:00.000-07:00

Looks like market is about to turn direction. I take short here at 1370.
E-mini S&P 500 june contract.

Good trading

How come we "missed" this rally?

2008-04-01T13:33:00.000-07:00

Well frankly , I haven't asked myself this question since I trade set-ups and sometimes those occur too fast for me to get on board as I look for confirmations from various tools.

At least my senses told me to get out the profitable trade and not to wait more.
As a trader , the most annoying thing for me is a profitable trade that closed with a loss.
The market is a complete chaos who can turn around in a second. When you are on track , you need to take the money out of the table. Usually if you don't , the market will do his job while you lose.

I suspect rally isn't over yet but only started. shorting here isn't a good idea.

Good trading

close short

2008-03-31T10:58:00.000-07:00

Closing here short at 1328 which leaves a 30.5 points profit.
The down trend hasn't confirmed to be done but we may have an up move towards the end of month.

Good trading

SHORT

2008-03-25T12:07:00.000-07:00

Short here 1358.50. It's a risky trade but I smell weakness.
The stop will be here tight.

Good trading

Updated performance sheet

2008-03-17T21:50:00.000-07:00

I updated the performance sheet of the blog.

These are only swings trades and usually meant to be less risky than my collective2 trades which contains also intra-day trades and swing stocks trading.

Good trading

Close Short

2008-03-17T00:43:00.000-07:00

While the futures drop about 2% now , I suspect the market may bounce or close today at no change level. Therefore I close my short position here at 1268.50. Means taking 26.5 points profit.

The market is in situation of to be or not be. It can drop much further but can reverse from here at least intra-day. I dont take any chances.

Good trading

Close long and reverse

2008-03-14T09:38:00.000-07:00

Ok. I closed the long with a loss of 30 points and going short here at 1295.00. June contract.

Good trading

Special update

2008-03-14T08:33:00.000-07:00

While Market breadth indicators suggest a potential bottom , I don't like the recent price activity.
I may look for a good opportunity to close the long position. BSC collapse doesn't help much to calm the panic.
Maybe Mr. Bush will do the job later today.

Good trading

Update

2008-03-10T13:07:00.000-07:00

The decision to reverse was a mistake. I saw some up momentum but it was too an aggressive trade which doesn't fit the blog.

However , I think breadth indicators suggests market is close to be bottoming.
It can slide down more but the correction is at the corner.Therefore I keep the long even with this drawdown. If you feel you can't handle it than you should step out and close position. I don't see the correction occurs tomorrow morning (though I would be happy if it would) but rather a complex pattern of few days. Patient is the key here.

Good trading

Close short and reverse

2008-03-06T06:51:00.000-08:00

I close short at 1325 and reverse. Means going long.
That's 62 points profit.

Good trading.

Still holding the position

2008-03-03T10:36:00.000-08:00

I am still holding the short from 1387.
If anyone of the readers wants to bail out , it's OK. feel free.
I see further move down as the support at 1325 should be broken to the next station which lies at 1302.

Good trading

SHORT

2008-02-27T09:46:00.000-08:00

ESH8 - short here 1387. We are at resistance zone. I smell weakness.

Good trading

Close long

2008-02-13T09:32:00.000-08:00

Close long ESH8 at 1358.50. 22.5 points profit.

The market can advance much higher but something here disturbing me.
I decided to take profit.

Long here

2008-02-11T11:36:00.000-08:00

Long E-mini s&p 1336.00. Details later.

What's the difference ?

2008-02-09T22:57:00.000-08:00

I was asked many tines about the difference between posting signals here and my collective2 system. Due to limitations of the blog platform , only low risk trades are posted in the blog and more of swing trades, means a trade last 3-6 days.
Therefore , a signal could be posted once a week or even not in 3 months in a row.

In collective2 every trade is posted real time to all members and thus there are also intra-day trades. The risk is greater and due to recent market conditions , it was extremely difficult to trade.
Why ?
Because it seems like the trend was changed. The assumptions of uptrend are different than down or consolidation trades. It takes also time to identify it because we let the market do the job and we don't hint.

In this border , the collective2 was positioned with long trades and I am very happy that we managed to exit all positions to a new record high.
If you have questions , requests or any other thing else, you can contact me - gt@index-trade.com.

Close short

2008-02-06T10:22:00.000-08:00

Closed short ESH8 at 1345. 42.5 points profit.

Updated permormance sheet can be found here.

Market is tricky now. Forecast for the 2-3 days ahead is down but today I susppect
there will be attempt to go up.

Where are we ?

2008-02-03T11:54:00.000-08:00

The market did sold off quite a bit but decided to recovery surprisingly or not in the end of January.

If you notice , end of month returns tend to be more positive than negative and if you wonder why , I suspect it's due to institutional activities' and their interests to decorate performance.

Anyway , I decided to short S&P500 since we approached first resistance at 1390 , I feel the market is ready to rest a bit in the near term.

In the chart below ,S&P500 cash index ,there are two main barriers which lies under 1390 and 1420. Long term view isn't positive either.

Short alert

2008-02-01T06:50:00.000-08:00

short esh8 1387.50. Details later.

Bulls on Fire

2008-01-18T06:19:00.000-08:00

The recent sell-off has been very dominant so far and perhaps would determine a trend change over the coming years. An expected rate cut of 0.5% help the market to recover but I afraid it won't be enough.

In the pic below , we can see a very simple trend indicator which is the 65 simple moving average. When the prices are below the MA65 at least 1 month - it's a bearish sign and vice versa. When the up trend was still intact , we witnessed several cases where the prices were below the MA65 and jumped right after that to new highs. At the moment we are below MA65 but support was broken and the pattern looks very similar to July 2000 - where the trend was changed.

In conclusion , If the market won't rally very impressively to 1500 levels as short squeeze will take place in the coming days, Then we are going to have a trend change for the coming years.

Bulls are losing big time

2008-01-05T01:09:00.000-08:00

Well , the market behaviour on Friday hasn't left a doubt whose hand are on the top.
The 1436 level was broken and therefore we got a major sell-off.

As for now , The breadth indicators suggests a temporary recovery but after that
I assume the market will continue to drop.
As for now , the indexwin long I took is not in a calm situation but we managed to
to exit with profit in similar situations in the past.

Good trading

bulls - are you ready to act ?

2008-01-03T11:32:00.000-08:00

Well , the market sold off quite a bit in the last days though it looks like shaking
weak hands.

The key support is 1436 in S&P500 cash index.
Breaking below this level would cause me to doubt the bulls consistency to push the market higher.

So watch out there. Tomorrow major news.

Good trading !

The alert was on time

2007-12-13T01:38:00.000-08:00

I hope you the readers are paying attention to what technical analysis has to say.
It isn't perfect and far away from it. But there are some spots , it can give you some edge.

Combined with money management , it can be a reasonable system to use.

In the last post : " Bearish divergences are spotted at 60 min charts on almost all leading indices.This doesn't mean the market will drop tomorrow.........Usually it takes for the market to digest this divergences.........The long the digestion occurs , the reversal will be sharper.......Not to forget , on the 11Th , fed rate cut of 0.5% can cause this analysis to be irrelevant........ "

Looks like the analysis was perfectly right. The digestion took several days. The rate cut wasn't 0.5% and the market sold off sharply.

The weakness was there and it only waited for the trigger of rate cut which was "only" 0.25%.

Bearish Divergence here

2007-12-08T00:47:00.000-08:00

Bearish divergences are spotted at 60 min charts on almost all leading indices.

This doesn't mean the market will drop tomorrow but it a thing we must take in account.
The uptrend is still intact and those of you who are investors , I wouldn't be too worry.

Usually it takes for the market to digest this divergences.
The long the digestion occurs , the reversal will be sharper.

Not to forget , on the 11Th , fed rate cut of 0.5% can cause this analysis to be irrelevant.

Exit long - 66 points profit

2007-12-03T10:02:00.000-08:00

Going out . Taking profit out of the table. 66 points profit.

Good trading

Market Commentary

2007-11-26T23:59:00.000-08:00

Well , the sentiment is quite negative. The sub-prime and weak economic news are doing their "job" Not to mention the bears' strong momentum to undermine the self-confidence of many investors in the uptrend.

I still see an opportunity in the recent market behaviour. Lower lows are not seen yet and market breadth suggests a temporary bottom occurring. It isn't a simple thing for the market to rocket from this sell off and thus it requires a patience.

I am long from couple weeks ago in my indexwein system as the risk I take there is greater than here. Moreover , the profile of the trade is different. I keep the trade at indexwin as I believe the market will correct to the upside.

Therefore , The last trade isn't recorded at indexwin system.

Good trading

LONG

2007-11-26T12:50:00.000-08:00

Long here 1416.00 esz7. Details later.

Exit long

2007-10-26T06:57:00.000-07:00

Well the market didn't behave as expected.
I found this rally to be suspicious and that's why I take 7 points profits and close the position.

Good trading

LONG

2007-10-23T12:56:00.000-07:00

I am long the market (ESZ7).

The market is ready to take action in the near future.
As usual trade recorded in my collective 2 system.

Stopped out

2007-10-19T11:57:00.000-07:00

Market is on major sell off. Maybe because of options expiry.
I stopped out with major loss but not one to wipe capital.

We keep risk management and that's why we still have gained major profits in collective system including today.

Good trading

LONG

2007-10-17T08:53:00.000-07:00

The market is strong.

Though tomorrow is option expiry , I still see a positive picture that makes
me to trade the long side.

In my Collective2 system , we took long yesterday 5 points lower with greater risk.

Good trading

EXIT SHORT

2007-10-11T12:12:00.000-07:00

It's been a tuff trade.
I Closed the short at break even. At collective2 we managed to get out with small profit.

Usually when a trade is going against me in such case , I am trying to get out ASAP though I believe there is still a chance for down side move in the coming days.

Good trading

NEW SHORT

2007-10-08T11:57:00.001-07:00

New short ES. Details later. Trade recorded at collective2.

Exit Short

2007-10-04T12:18:00.000-07:00

I don't like this price action plus major economic numbers are about to release tomorrow,
led me to decide to take a small profit and to be on the safe side of the equation risk/reward.

Trade recorded at collective2.

Good trading
www.collective2.com/go/indexwin

SHORT

2007-10-04T03:55:00.000-07:00

Over the previous week the market was very strong as it didn't react to all weakness signs I was getting.

Right now I still see a weakness as I am short form yesterday in Collective2 system which is very close to the price now.

Good trading
www.collective2.com/go/indexwin

confustion

2007-09-26T07:41:00.000-07:00

Well the market is pretty hard to analyze at the moment. The VIX and VXN are pointing higher while prices refuse to decline.

So the current market status is watch out from new longs but no new short yet in the blog.
I may short at my collective2 system - www.collective2.com/go/indexwin since it's a trade that need more of attention.

Good trading

EXIT SHORT

2007-09-25T14:58:00.000-07:00

I am closing the short position with a minimal profit.
Price pattern gave me the impression of a move down and eventually it happened but with very limited momentum.
We may still have a massive sell-off but I decided to reduce risk and close the trade.

I may re-short the market when we break down. Meanwhile I am neutral.

www.collective2.com/go/indexwin

Short

2007-09-20T23:03:00.000-07:00

Well , market is pretty weak.

We may experience a double top but I decided to short here.

As usual , trade recorded @ www.collective2.com/go/indexwin

Fed Summary

2007-09-18T13:26:00.000-07:00

The fed decided to cut interest rate by half point and the market said its word.

From our point of view , I didn't see any mistake in taking step aside out of the market till the announcement release. This is what difference us from gamblers.

We take a logical decision when the odds are on our favour. We don't have to be in the market all the time.

I detected a weakness yesterday but I waited for toady's action. So we weren't in the market at this huge rally but it could have been the opposite. so no regrets.

Good trading.

What to do?

2007-09-17T13:18:00.000-07:00

Well , today weakness arrived and the leading indexes closed down.

My analysis showing a sell signal but tomorrow Mr. B. is about to say his word and things can get out of control in perspective of technical analysis.

Stay tuned.

Exit long - 28 points profit

2007-09-14T10:58:00.000-07:00

I am closing long position. The market may attempt going higher but it can reverse.

As usual , Trade recorded at my collective2 system ( we went long a bit lower with greater risk , so the profit there is 36 points) :

http://www.collective2.com/cgi-perl/systems.mpl?session=663202903583546466586801804467887&want=publicdetails&systemid=27432745

Long

2007-09-10T12:44:00.000-07:00

I am long now.

At collective2 , I took long 8 points lower.

Exit short

2007-09-09T23:32:00.000-07:00

24 points profit. Trade recorded at my collective2 trading system.

http://www.collective2.com/cgi-perl/systems.mpl?session=663202903583546466586801804467887&want=publicdetails&systemid=27432745

Short alert

2007-09-06T12:13:00.000-07:00

Market can go either way. I placed a short order.

As usual , Trade recorded at collective2 system.

There is also a 7 days free trial and the cost is only 49$ a month.

Not only you get an instant message/SMS when any order is placed but you will receive a intra day trades as I trade.

Good luck