Closed short

The short from 893.50 closed with stop buy at 881.75 on Friday.

The futures Friday morning plunged to 830 but from opening recovred and closed 885 area.
The reason for closing the trade was once you have a winning trade , don't let it turn to a losser.

Swingit is once again at new record high.

Good trading

Important message

A short at 893.50 was called on wednesday at 893.50 E-mini December future.

As I am willing to post my trades on-line and real-time , many subscribers have asked why should them pay (even if it's only 50$ a month) while they can have it on the blog for free.

Well , I think there is some point in their compliant , specially after 1.5 year , posting the trades in the site for free.
Therfore, I may post the trades with some delay , so you the readers could evaluate the trade and subscribers would benfit the paid service.

If you would like to subscribe to swing it service , please press the upper right paypal button.
If you don't have the time to trade , I have a cooperation with a big US certified broker to excute the trades for you.

For questions , feel free to e-mail me - indexswing@yahoo.com

Closed short

On Friday ,the S&P500 was ready to break down the 820 levels. Especially after bad economics data.

Suprise , It hasn't.
Instead , we got a huge rally. I placed a buy stop order at 857.75 and it was filled to a trade with a 12 points profit.

The future continued to rally till 878.50 but closed at 871.75.

The trade was recorded at Swingit and now we are again at new high record.
Please visit performance page.

Good trading

SHORT

Short signal was triggered when the December e-mini contract was at 870.

Trade is recorded in swingit C2.

Good trading

Closed short

The market gave us and we never refuse to 100 points prfoit.

You can review our updated performance in the upper right side of the page or here.

Good trading

Short

Short was called in December e-mini SP500 future contract at 997.
The trade was recorded at C2 platform.

I am sorry for not updating real time the trade but tracking the position
is on my top proiority once triggered.


Good trading

Out

The long was closed with a loss yesterday since it passed my 5% draw down rule.

The recent volatility has not left any chance for this trade.

While the panic is celebrating , in a month foresee , it will settle down and therefore we will undergo a nice rally.

Good trading

Long

Swing it has been Long since yesterday.

I am sorry for the late post but I find it
very difficult to update the blog while managing the position in the same time.

Good trading

Closed Trade

On the 29/09 , I went long at 1167 , S&P e-mini December contract.
The trade was closed on the 30/09 , at 1173.
6 points profit.

I couldn't update the trade real-time in the blog due to extreme market conditions.
The trade was recorded at C2 Swing it platform.

Good trading

Closed short

The short trade was closed with a profit of 86 points.

It's note worthy to review the performance sheet of the blog which gained 70.37% yield (no leverage) from 15.03.07 till 17.09.08 vs. -16.94% of the S&P 500 cash index.

Good trading

Close - Late update

A short trade at 1279.00 Sep contract was triggered in my C2 Swingit system on the 27/08/08.

Due to technical difficulties , the message comes out only today.

Good trading

Close Short

Market looks too stiff to breakdown.

Therefore, the September S&P 500 E-mini short was closed at 1268.00.
That's 40.75 points profit. As usual trades were recorded in my swing it C2 platform.

Good trading

Short

Going short at 1308.75. S&P September E-mini contract.
Sorry for the late update . The trade was reported on-line at C2 swingit platform
system.

Good trading.

The short is closed

I closed the short at 1239.50. That's a 18 points profit.

While the market looks vulnerable to further downside move ,
I decided to take profit here.

This trade hasn't started as expected but proved that when there is weakness,
market can't ignore it.

As usual, trade was recorded at C2 swing it.

Good trading
Indexwin

Short

I took short at 1257.50 in C2 swing it system.

The recent rally has been impressive but sellers are waiting for their turn to act.

Good trading

Close long

I am closing the long here . Emini September contract at 1256.
That's a 27 points profit.

Trade was recorded in C2 swing it.

Good trading

Indexwin

Long

We are in panic time.

I went long ESU8 , E-mini s&p 500 September contract at 1229.00
We can have draw down greater than expected but you never know.

Trade is recorded in my Swing it system.

Good trading

Indexwin

Closed short

I closed short e-mini SP September contract(ESU8) at 1278. Trade is recorded at swing it C2 system. That means 82.5 points profit.

The reason is simple. Breadth suggest correction is near. Nevertheless,I wouldn't be surprised to see the market falls down even today. This is a scenario that may happen during strong sell-offs.
I decided to take the money out of the table.

FYI , over the last weeks my aggressive C2 system Indexwin has reached new record high.


Good trading

Short

I take short here . September S&P e-mini contract at 1360.50.

Trade is recodred in swing it C2 system

Good trading

Exit Short

I closed short position e-mini s&p future at 1356.00.

That leave us a 30.5 points profit. I may re-short the market even in the short term but meanwhile I decided to take the money out of the table.
As usual trade was recorded at my collective 2 swing it system.

You may want to visit my other collective 2 trading system index win which has peaked to new high record over the last week.

Good trading

Short

Well , I usually don't enter a trade where the S&P is dropping 1% but I see further weakness in the index.

Therefore I decided to short at 1386.50 E-mini s&p June contract.

Trade is recorded in my swing it trading system.


Good trading

Exit all short

I exit all short position at 1378.75. I smell some upside before downtrend to continue. I decided to take profit.

As you remember I Sold 2 S&P e-mini short contracts. First at 1382.5 and the second at 1421.
For the first contract ,the gain was 3.75 points and for the second 42.25 points.

The trades were posted real time in my swing it trading system.

The performance sheet of the blog will be updated as well.

Good trading

Adding one more contract

I am adding one more short at 1421. This is the first time I am adding contract my current position in the blog.

The reason is that I have swing it collective2 system which can easily track the position.



Good trading

So when we are going from here?

The market as always doing us a difficult job but it seems to me the recent price action has been very challenging.

Will the SP500 continue move to 1450 ? The down trend is over? Are we going to collapse from here? Are we in the end of recession or maybe it's only the beginning ?

My view for the short term is that the market has a little space for further move down.
The volatility has been very low over the last two weeks. My analysis shows it need to rise significantly over the short-mid term. So that what makes me to be very cautious on the long side for the mid term.

In conclusion, This is a very difficult time. I will examine Monday's market behavior to finally determine what to do.

Good trading

This signal was a false one ?

The last sell signal was accompanied by both a price weakness and breadth weakness.
While price hasn't broken down and eventually move up , the breadth still suggest weakness.
That's why I stick with my sell signal s&p index.
Trading isn't an easy thing to do. The last event is a good example.

I still see a limited upside potential. When the market isn't "listening" to the breadth over some period of time , the drop can be brutal.

I was asked whether there is a stop loss in the signals. I have a mental stop where I can see I was wrong.

I follow the position constantly in my new collective2 system called swing it which is the trading system that has been generating the signals in the blog over the last year.

Good trading

Short signal

A short signal has been placed for E mini SP contract at 1382.00.

Good trading

Exit long - 60.5 points profit

Glad this trade was finally a winner. The market was helding the 1320-1325 level and triggered
a potential upside movement.

We set 60.5 points profit. The market may go higher but I decided to take profit here.

Good trading

Long

Well , I don't have full confirmation but I take here long 1332.
Because the risk is higher than usual ,the stop here will be placed at 1317.

Good trading

Keeping the risk a way

Yesterday decision was obviously a mistake (The s&p emini contract is traded at 1344) but I don't regret. I had some indicators suggested to exit short. That doesn't mean going long but rather be careful - there might be a trend change .

Right now , I wouldn't go long here and prefer the down side though short here involves a greater risk than usually and that's why isn't declared.

Good trading

close short

I am closing short here. 1367. 3 points profit.

Short here

Looks like market is about to turn direction. I take short here at 1370.
E-mini S&P 500 june contract.

Good trading

How come we "missed" this rally?

Well frankly , I haven't asked myself this question since I trade set-ups and sometimes those occur too fast for me to get on board as I look for confirmations from various tools.

At least my senses told me to get out the profitable trade and not to wait more.
As a trader , the most annoying thing for me is a profitable trade that closed with a loss.
The market is a complete chaos who can turn around in a second. When you are on track , you need to take the money out of the table. Usually if you don't , the market will do his job while you lose.

I suspect rally isn't over yet but only started. shorting here isn't a good idea.

Good trading

close short

Closing here short at 1328 which leaves a 30.5 points profit.
The down trend hasn't confirmed to be done but we may have an up move towards the end of month.

Good trading

SHORT

Short here 1358.50. It's a risky trade but I smell weakness.
The stop will be here tight.

Good trading

Updated performance sheet

I updated the performance sheet of the blog.

These are only swings trades and usually meant to be less risky than my collective2 trades which contains also intra-day trades and swing stocks trading.



Good trading

Close Short

While the futures drop about 2% now , I suspect the market may bounce or close today at no change level. Therefore I close my short position here at 1268.50. Means taking 26.5 points profit.

The market is in situation of to be or not be. It can drop much further but can reverse from here at least intra-day. I dont take any chances.

Good trading

Close long and reverse

Ok. I closed the long with a loss of 30 points and going short here at 1295.00. June contract.

Good trading

Special update

While Market breadth indicators suggest a potential bottom , I don't like the recent price activity.
I may look for a good opportunity to close the long position. BSC collapse doesn't help much to calm the panic.
Maybe Mr. Bush will do the job later today.

Good trading

Update

The decision to reverse was a mistake. I saw some up momentum but it was too an aggressive trade which doesn't fit the blog.

However , I think breadth indicators suggests market is close to be bottoming.
It can slide down more but the correction is at the corner.Therefore I keep the long even with this drawdown. If you feel you can't handle it than you should step out and close position. I don't see the correction occurs tomorrow morning (though I would be happy if it would) but rather a complex pattern of few days. Patient is the key here.

Good trading

Close short and reverse

I close short at 1325 and reverse. Means going long.
That's 62 points profit.

Good trading.

Still holding the position

I am still holding the short from 1387.
If anyone of the readers wants to bail out , it's OK. feel free.
I see further move down as the support at 1325 should be broken to the next station which lies at 1302.

Good trading

SHORT

ESH8 - short here 1387. We are at resistance zone. I smell weakness.

Good trading

Close long

Close long ESH8 at 1358.50. 22.5 points profit.

The market can advance much higher but something here disturbing me.
I decided to take profit.

Long here

Long E-mini s&p 1336.00. Details later.

What's the difference ?

I was asked many tines about the difference between posting signals here and my collective2 system. Due to limitations of the blog platform , only low risk trades are posted in the blog and more of swing trades, means a trade last 3-6 days.
Therefore , a signal could be posted once a week or even not in 3 months in a row.

In collective2 every trade is posted real time to all members and thus there are also intra-day trades. The risk is greater and due to recent market conditions , it was extremely difficult to trade.
Why ?
Because it seems like the trend was changed. The assumptions of uptrend are different than down or consolidation trades. It takes also time to identify it because we let the market do the job and we don't hint.

In this border , the collective2 was positioned with long trades and I am very happy that we managed to exit all positions to a new record high.
If you have questions , requests or any other thing else, you can contact me - gt@index-trade.com.

Close short

Closed short ESH8 at 1345. 42.5 points profit.

Updated permormance sheet can be found here.

Market is tricky now. Forecast for the 2-3 days ahead is down but today I susppect
there will be attempt to go up.

Where are we ?

The market did sold off quite a bit but decided to recovery surprisingly or not in the end of January.

If you notice , end of month returns tend to be more positive than negative and if you wonder why , I suspect it's due to institutional activities' and their interests to decorate performance.

Anyway , I decided to short S&P500 since we approached first resistance at 1390 , I feel the market is ready to rest a bit in the near term.

In the chart below ,S&P500 cash index ,there are two main barriers which lies under 1390 and 1420. Long term view isn't positive either.

Short alert

short esh8 1387.50. Details later.

Bulls on Fire

The recent sell-off has been very dominant so far and perhaps would determine a trend change over the coming years. An expected rate cut of 0.5% help the market to recover but I afraid it won't be enough.

In the pic below , we can see a very simple trend indicator which is the 65 simple moving average. When the prices are below the MA65 at least 1 month - it's a bearish sign and vice versa. When the up trend was still intact , we witnessed several cases where the prices were below the MA65 and jumped right after that to new highs. At the moment we are below MA65 but support was broken and the pattern looks very similar to July 2000 - where the trend was changed.

In conclusion , If the market won't rally very impressively to 1500 levels as short squeeze will take place in the coming days, Then we are going to have a trend change for the coming years.

Bulls are losing big time

Well , the market behaviour on Friday hasn't left a doubt whose hand are on the top.
The 1436 level was broken and therefore we got a major sell-off.

As for now , The breadth indicators suggests a temporary recovery but after that
I assume the market will continue to drop.
As for now , the indexwin long I took is not in a calm situation but we managed to
to exit with profit in similar situations in the past.

Good trading

bulls - are you ready to act ?

Well , the market sold off quite a bit in the last days though it looks like shaking
weak hands.

The key support is 1436 in S&P500 cash index.
Breaking below this level would cause me to doubt the bulls consistency to push the market higher.

So watch out there. Tomorrow major news.

Good trading !