Did you survive ?

I hope you survived this harsh volatile environment.

Finally the market recovered and bears suffered in the last 2 days. However when looking into SPX and NDX charts , there appears a not alike bullish candle - inverted hammer which hint that there could be another wave down before we continue to advance. Look at the chart below of S&P500 with my best guess.

I remain bullish overall though I hedged myself a bit.

RISKY BUT

As the market continue to act volatile and angry , it shows a sign of bullish.
Look at bullish divergence here at SP500. so i would take long but it ain't conservative alert , so pay attention in this wild environment.

Taking Profit

We waited and the down move came just in time to collect more than 20 points e-mini S&P to our pocket. In the meanwhile the market can bounce here but no conservative buy signal yet.

Waiting for decline

Well , as of Monday close - the market looks approaching his top.
Monday was a typical distribution day and it's a good stop bullish sign. We may have a few distribution days in the rest of the week but the short are just across the corner. And remember the more those distribution days occur , the stronger the down move would be.

Good luck

Watch Out

Friday trading on the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) gave us a rare pattern with 2 components.

One is the the daily data. First huge gap up when open is above high yesterday and second a black candle. Not a positive signs for bulls.

Second, we entered a possible turning point according to volume reading - please see the chart and what happens when the volume is above the blue line. Usually a reversal point. So be careful out there. I am not short yet.

Another win !!!

In my last post - what's next? , I alerted to watch for a bullish bias as the SP500 signaled a positive sign upwards. So what happened since ?

The market struggled with an extremely volatile environment but finally moved to our side with a favourable 20 points profit. So I decided to take the profit as I aware we are still in bullish sentiment and the market can advance much higher. So at the moment I am neutral.

what's next?

After seeing the market drops well below out of taking profit point - we examine the market closely and revealed new signs of bullish. On Friday we got a buy signal on daily charts on all major indexes. Usually this signal is very strong over a period of week or longer time frame.


Below is SP500 daily chart. The yellow dot is a bullish sign.

Another 20 points profit

I hope you guys followed the last post of the blog. In the counting profits post I wrote :

"Today we got some sort of exhaustion pattern. I suspect this levels are quite dangerous for longs and prepare for negative bias if not today then next week."

Oh boy - It came strong and fast - as sells off are usually act. 20 points E-mini SP500 were taken. I decided to lock profits instead of letting the market to deceive me.

In the below image you can see the entry and exit timing.

So what's next ? First , the bearish bias is still intact though there are signs it might changed.

Take a look at VIX chart. For those who are not familiar with method - you are invited to take a look here - method was developed by Mr. Connors.

According to the method, an upside reversal point is expected. Pay attention that this method does not have 100% track record but usually gives you another reasonable vision of current market direction.

Counting Profits

As I alerted in my previous post Going higher ?

"Looks like the bulls want to push it one more time higher."

The SP500 traded at 1515.70. Yesterday close was 1531.18 and futures are going higher now as we took 20 points profit in the SP e-mini. So what's next? Today we got some sort of exhaustion pattern. I suspect this levels are quite dangerous for longs and prepare for negative bias if not today then next week.