Friday, January 18, 2008

Bulls on Fire

The recent sell-off has been very dominant so far and perhaps would determine a trend change over the coming years. An expected rate cut of 0.5% help the market to recover but I afraid it won't be enough.

In the pic below , we can see a very simple trend indicator which is the 65 simple moving average. When the prices are below the MA65 at least 1 month - it's a bearish sign and vice versa. When the up trend was still intact , we witnessed several cases where the prices were below the MA65 and jumped right after that to new highs. At the moment we are below MA65 but support was broken and the pattern looks very similar to July 2000 - where the trend was changed.

In conclusion , If the market won't rally very impressively to 1500 levels as short squeeze will take place in the coming days, Then we are going to have a trend change for the coming years.

Saturday, January 5, 2008

Bulls are losing big time

Well , the market behaviour on Friday hasn't left a doubt whose hand are on the top.
The 1436 level was broken and therefore we got a major sell-off.

As for now , The breadth indicators suggests a temporary recovery but after that
I assume the market will continue to drop.
As for now , the indexwin long I took is not in a calm situation but we managed to
to exit with profit in similar situations in the past.

Good trading

Thursday, January 3, 2008

bulls - are you ready to act ?

Well , the market sold off quite a bit in the last days though it looks like shaking
weak hands.

The key support is 1436 in S&P500 cash index.
Breaking below this level would cause me to doubt the bulls consistency to push the market higher.

So watch out there. Tomorrow major news.

Good trading !