Friday, January 18, 2008

Bulls on Fire

The recent sell-off has been very dominant so far and perhaps would determine a trend change over the coming years. An expected rate cut of 0.5% help the market to recover but I afraid it won't be enough.

In the pic below , we can see a very simple trend indicator which is the 65 simple moving average. When the prices are below the MA65 at least 1 month - it's a bearish sign and vice versa. When the up trend was still intact , we witnessed several cases where the prices were below the MA65 and jumped right after that to new highs. At the moment we are below MA65 but support was broken and the pattern looks very similar to July 2000 - where the trend was changed.

In conclusion , If the market won't rally very impressively to 1500 levels as short squeeze will take place in the coming days, Then we are going to have a trend change for the coming years.

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